Week four everyone is starting to figure out the trends, who is good, who is bad etc. Unfortunately Las Vegas knows this and adjusts the lines accordingly. You can read all the Bill Simmons' of the world and still maybe finish a game or two above .500.
At this point you need a couple of good sports betting websites that you trust and follow your instincts. Or stick to college football because it is much easier, especially with home field advantage actually meaning something.
My suggest as augmented by my week 4 picks is to bang the away favorites home slice.
Steve 6-5 (Best bet 1-1)
Bills -3 (Away Cincinnati)
Saints -7 (Away Jacksonville)
Vikings -3 (Away Kansas City)
Buccaneers -10 (Home Indianapolis)
Under 42.5 Ravens Jets
Wreck 5-3-2 (Best Bet 1-1)
Cleveland pick (Home Tennessee)
San Francisco +9.5 (Away Philadelphia)
Pittsburgh +3.5 (Away Houston)
Chicago -6.5 (Home Carolina)
Denver +12 (Home San Diego)